The expectations of tourism companies improved in December
The National Association of Tourism and Hospitality Employers (VIMOSZ) jointly with the Hungarian Tourism Association and GKI Gazdaságkutató Zrt. measures the expected development of the business cycle in tourism on a monthly basis and publishes the Tourism Business Cycle Index, thus providing the market and the public with information on the about expected trends in the near future.
The TKI index stood at -6 points in December 2023 (interpreted on a scale between -100 and +100), which means that the players of the sector perceive their situation as slightly deteriorating. The value of the index increased by 2 points in the last month of the year, which significantly exceeds its value a year ago by 16 points. The index decreased in the accommodation service, while it increased slightly in the hospitality sector and significantly in the other tourism sector.
The index of the other tourism sector is somewhat separated from the other two sub-sectors in a positive direction, which are at the same level. The index of accommodation services has been on a downward trend since the spring of 2023, and in December it just dropped to the level of September, while catering has not been able to show any significant improvement for nearly a year, despite the slight consolidation in December.
In December, the TKI index was lower than the economic index of the service sector (-1 point), at the same time it exceeded the GKI business confidence index representing the national economic average (-7 points), and it significantly exceeded the construction industry (-18 points) and trade (-15 points) index.
If we compare the December 2023 TKI index with the one a year earlier (December 2022), we see a significant improvement. This is true on the one hand for all three sub-sectors of the sector (to the greatest extent for the other tourism sector), on the other hand for all size groups (mainly for companies with 3-5 employees), and on the third hand for all sub-indices of the TKI index (of which the assessment of operating costs has improved to the greatest extent).
In November, 31% of tourism companies indicated that they expected to increase the price of their services in the next 3 months, 67% did not change the prices, while 2% indicated a decrease. In the next three months, compared to the same period last year, 23% of accommodation providers expect an increase and 33% a decrease in the number of guest nights. Among those working in the hospitality industry, 17% expect an increase in guest traffic compared to the same period of the previous year, and 33% predict a decline. 45% of those operating in the other tourism sector expect an increase in customer traffic compared to the same period of the previous year, and 10% forecast a decline.
Source: National Association of Tourism and Hospitality Employers (VIMOSZ)